
EUR/USD tested support near $1.1045, its weakest level since April 2025. Higher US two-year and ten-year yields kept the dollar near a 19-month high, with markets pricing further Fed hikes.
A firmer dollar from rate expectations weighs on US dollar-priced commodities and can pressure export competitiveness and prices for grains and oilseeds.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.