
The euro fell and the dollar index edged higher after weak euro zone PMI data showed business activity contracting. Markets priced roughly a 77% chance of an ECB rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the October meeting.
A weaker euro and firmer dollar make US commodities more expensive for euro buyers and can pressure dollar-denominated futures.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.