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The IEA's November 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts world oil demand falling 2.7 mb/d in 2026 to 102.3 mb/d, before a 2 mb/d rebound in 2027. Global oil supply rose 2.3 mb/d to 105.4 mb/d in October on higher Gulf exports despite attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers.
Higher supply and weaker demand point to a looser crude market, which eases energy costs for feed producers through diesel, fertilizer and freight channels. Refinery margins weakened on record freight costs, a further pressure on diesel-linked logistics.
iea.orgNov 13, 2026After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 11 past neutral macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.6% to +4.1%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
