US Corn Stocks Surge 35%, Pressing CBOT Futures to Six-Week Lows
USDA's latest quarterly grain stocks report shows US corn inventories rose 35% year-on-year to 2.10 billion bushels as of 1 September 2026, driving the December CBOT contract to a six-week low near 499 US cents per bushel. EU and Black Sea physical prices remain broadly stable amid ample global supply, with Brazil still shipping large export volumes and China projecting a strong 2026 harvest.
US corn prices came under renewed pressure on 1 October 2026 after the USDA's quarterly grain stocks report revealed a supply picture significantly more comfortable than a year earlier, pushing Chicago futures to their lowest level in six weeks while European and Black Sea physical prices held broadly steady.
USDA Stocks Report Triggers Sell-Off
According to CMB News, the USDA reported total US corn inventories of 2.10 billion bushels as of 1 September 2026, up 35% year-on-year from 1.55 billion bushels a year earlier. Off-farm stocks rose 44% to 1.31 billion bushels, while on-farm stocks climbed 22% to 787 million bushels. The report triggered what CMB News described as "a notable sell‑off in Chicago," with the December 2026 CBOT contract falling to a six-week low before stabilising around 499 US cents per bushel in early trade on 1 October.
Record US Crop Underpins Bearish Balance Sheet
CMB News reported that the 2025 US corn crop was revised down by only 57 million bushels to 16.964 billion bushels, less than 1%, and remains a record, based on an unchanged yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. Demand also remained firm: CMB News noted that disappearance from June to August reached 3.20 billion bushels, slightly above the prior year's 3.09 billion bushels, "confirming robust demand but not enough to prevent a significant stock rebuild."
European and Black Sea Prices Stable
On Euronext, the nearby November 2026 corn contract last traded at 264.25 EUR per tonne, with the forward curve only slightly lower into 2027–28. Physical prices in Europe and the Black Sea also remained subdued: German feed corn EXW Drentwede was indicated at 0.29 EUR/kg, while Ukrainian feed corn CPT Odesa stood at 0.154 EUR/kg and FOB Odesa at 0.156 EUR/kg, both described by CMB News as "close to recent lows." Indian organic corn starch FOB New Delhi traded markedly higher at 1.32 EUR/kg, reflecting its niche, value-added status.
Brazil and China Shape Global Supply Outlook
Brazil continued to ship large volumes, though CMB News noted September corn exports are now estimated at around 5.4 million tonnes, down modestly from earlier projections, providing what the outlet described as "only a minor reprieve to global prices." In China, CMB News reported that the country's agriculture ministry expects a strong 2026 grain harvest with expanded acreage in high-yielding crops such as corn, which could reduce incremental import needs over the medium term. September conditions in China's North-East and North China Plain were described as "broadly favorable, with sufficient warmth and manageable precipitation aiding grain fill and ripening."
Market Tone Broadly Bearish
CMB News characterised the overall market tone as "fundamentally bearish," citing the combination of sharply higher US old-crop stocks, a near-record US harvest, strong Brazilian export flows, and an improving Chinese supply outlook. Short-term noise from strong disappearance and regional logistics was acknowledged but described as insufficient to alter the broader direction.
Prepared with AI assistance by Endata and reviewed by the editorial team.