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  • Corn$5.29/bu+0.2%
  • Soybeans$13.20/bu+0.2%
  • Soybean meal$370.60/US ton-0.5%
  • Soybean oil$0.6782/lb+0.4%
  • SRW wheat$7.04/bu-0.4%
  • HRW wheat$7.62/bu-0.7%
  • Live cattle$222.10/cwt+0.5%
  • Feeder cattle$332.00/cwt+1.2%
  • Lean hogs$68.97/cwt-0.7%
Commodity Markets

U.S.-China Tariff Deal Would Shield Selected Farm Exports, Greer Says

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on 25 September 2026 that a bilateral Board of Trade agreement with China would protect selected agricultural exports from future tariff retaliation, with full details expected on 28 September. The trade truce has also been extended through January 2027, but an unresolved Section 301 overcapacity investigation could complicate the arrangement.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Friday, 25 September 2026, that the United States and China have agreed through their bilateral Board of Trade to reduce tariffs on selected nonsensitive goods, including agricultural products, and that more details would be released on Monday, 28 September, according to remarks reported by Ag Bull Trading from a CNBC appearance.

Greer said the proposed arrangement would cover selected U.S. agricultural exports and medical devices alongside preferential treatment for Chinese consumer products. The stated goal is to keep covered trade insulated if the broader relationship deteriorates. "We just leave those things to the side," Greer said of products covered by the agreement, according to Ag Bull. No specific commodities, tariff reduction levels, effective dates or additional purchase volumes were identified in his reported remarks.

President Trump cited agriculture when welcoming Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, 24 September, saying work through the Board of Trade included "new market access for American farmers and ranchers," according to Ag Bull. Trump described the meeting on Truth Social the following morning as "very productive," adding "Tremendous things will be happening," though that post did not specifically mention farmers.

The tariff arrangement follows a two-month extension of the trade truce reached in Busan, South Korea. The pause, which had been due to expire on 10 November, now runs through 10 January 2027. Greer described such extensions as a "compliance period," allowing Washington to monitor Beijing's fulfilment of commitments, with officials closely tracking Chinese agricultural purchases, particularly soybeans, as well as commitments to supply rare earth materials.

On the state of trade, Greer estimated that the annual U.S. goods deficit with China is on track to reach roughly $140 billion, compared with about $300 billion when Trump began his current term. Those figures were characterised by Ag Bull as Greer's own estimates. Greer also said sensitive advanced semiconductor exports requiring licences remain outside these trade negotiations.

Purchase commitments and the tariff gap

Greer said on 22 September that China was roughly halfway toward its pledge to buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027 and 2028, and that about $4 billion of a broader farm-purchase commitment had been met. The White House has put that broader pledge at $17 billion a year for 2026 through 2028, with the 2026 amount prorated, but the exact 2026 target has not been published and Greer offered no commodity breakdown or data source, according to Ag Bull.

China currently applies a 10% retaliatory duty on U.S. soybeans and sorghum. On soybeans, that stacks on the 3% most-favoured-nation rate for a 13% total, compared with 3% for Brazilian beans, according to Ag Bull's trade reporting through 21 September 2026. Ag Bull noted that this margin matters most to private Chinese crushers, which buy on processing economics rather than government direction. Outside soybeans, Chinese buying of corn, wheat and sorghum has been described as limited.

The Board of Trade has been described as covering roughly $30 billion of nonsensitive goods from each side, with farm products, energy and possibly medical devices as priority areas, according to Ag Bull. Product lists, duty levels and buyer eligibility had not been published ahead of the summit.

Section 301 wild card

A separate tariff decision could complicate the détente. The administration delayed until after the summit its report and proposed remedies from an industrial overcapacity investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, with China among the economies covered and the possibility of additional tariffs. Officials have discussed structuring any new measures so that the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods does not increase, but Ag Bull noted that individual products could still face different treatment even if the aggregate rate holds steady.

Ag Bull reported that Monday's expected release needs to clarify which farm products qualify, when relief begins and how the two governments would preserve protections during any future dispute. The timing of that release carries some uncertainty, as Greer qualified his Monday commitment with the phrase "I think," according to the report.

Prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by the editorial team.

Sources

Commodity Markets

China's 2026/27 Soybean Crop Seen Stable as Quality Premiums Widen and Harvest Weather Adds Risk

China's 2026/27 soybean output is projected at roughly 20.95 million tons, marginally above last year, but the market is increasingly split between high-protein, food-grade beans commanding firm premiums and ordinary, lower-protein supplies facing harvest-period price pressure. Wet and cool weather in key northeastern provinces around late September is complicating fieldwork and drying logistics, adding quality and timing risk to an otherwise stable volume outlook.

3 min read