Grain Futures Threaten Downtrend as Trump-Xi Summit Yields Little on Agricultural Trade

Grain futures were under broad selling pressure on the morning of 25 September 2026, with corn, soybeans, and winter wheat each called sharply lower at the open, according to Pro Farmer's "Ahead of the Open" report authored by Lane Akre.

Pro Farmer called corn 11 to 13 cents lower, soybeans 16 to 19 cents lower, and winter wheat 19 to 22 cents lower, with hard red spring (HRS) wheat seen 12 to 14 cents lower. The publication stated that "corn, soybeans and wheat are breaking down on the daily bar chart, giving bears the technical advantage," and that "the tone has quickly shifted in commodities and grains are threatening to enter a downtrend barring an intraday reversal."

Trump-Xi Summit: Pomp Without Agricultural Specifics

A central source of market uncertainty was the outcome of a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. Quoting a Bloomberg report, Pro Farmer noted: "President Trump's fete for China's Xi Jinping has been heavy on pageantry and platitudes but light on substantive announcements." The most notable development ahead of the meeting was that "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said just as Xi's plane landed that the two sides had extended a trade truce for another two months," according to the same Bloomberg report cited by Pro Farmer. Anticipated agreements on tariff cuts and communications on artificial intelligence had not yet been announced, and Chinese stocks in Hong Kong declined.

For commodity markets specifically, Pro Farmer cited a second Bloomberg report stating: "Commodities markets are looking for specifics on trade in agriculture and energy between the two powers, including Chinese purchases of U.S. crops and natural gas. So far, details haven't materialized, leaving traders awaiting further statements from Washington and Beijing."

Crude Oil Falls on Potential U.S.-Iran Deal

Energy markets also weighed on sentiment. According to Pro Farmer, "Brent crude fell toward $105 and WTI toward $92 per barrel on Friday, snapping a two-day rally amid reports the U.S. and Iran are considering a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports." The report noted that Qatari officials were reportedly mediating talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was cited as having told journalists and academics that "his country offered the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if certain conditions were met." Iran's stated position, as reported by Pro Farmer via Bloomberg, was that it "must retain control over Hormuz and would not accept a deal unless the U.S. eases military pressure and removes its blockade."

Treasury Yields at Multi-Year Highs

Rising U.S. government borrowing costs provided an additional headwind. Pro Farmer cited a Bloomberg report describing the situation as potentially "a fundamental shift," with "nearly all U.S. benchmark yields are hovering around or above 5%, with five-year Treasuries surpassing that threshold on Wednesday for the first time since 2007." The report attributed the rise to multiple forces including "$100-a-barrel oil and the AI spending boom, to yawning U.S. budget deficits adding to a record $40 trillion debt load."

Corn and Soybean Technicals

On the technical side, Pro Farmer noted that December corn futures support lies at $5.14½, "which sees little reinforcement until the $5.00 mark," with resistance at $5.25 and $5.27. November soybeans were described as "trading in the lower end of the recent range," with support at $13.00 and then $12.92, while bulls were said to be "looking to break prices back above the 10-day moving average at $13.13." December SRW wheat support was identified at $6.82¾, with bulls aiming to "reclaim the psychological $7.00 mark on a reversal higher."

Livestock: Cattle Weaker, Hogs Expected Higher

In livestock markets, live and feeder cattle futures were expected to open weaker, with Pro Farmer noting that "cash cattle trade continues to pick up at modestly weaker prices than last week." Choice beef fell an additional $1.19 to $376.12 on Thursday, extending a recent pullback.

Lean hog futures, by contrast, were called higher following a USDA Hogs & Pigs report that Pro Farmer described as bullish. USDA indicated the hog herd at 98% of year-ago levels, tighter than the market expectation of 99%. Hogs kept for breeding came in at 99%, in line with expectations, while hogs kept for marketing slid to 98%, below expectations. Pro Farmer attributed the tighter marketing herd to "persistent disease pressure, killing hogs early." Despite the supportive report, futures continued to trend lower on the daily bar chart, and the CME lean hog index fell another 27 cents to $82.20 as of 23 September, with pork cutout sliding 72 cents to $86.10 on Thursday.