A sharply larger 2026 Ukrainian sunflower crop, combined with war-damaged crushing capacity and elevated logistics costs, is pushing domestic seed purchase prices and sunflower oil values lower as the harvest accelerates into early October.
Ukraine's sunflower harvest is forecast to recover to around 14 million tonnes in 2026, roughly 20% above last year, on improved yields in eastern and southern regions. While the larger crop stabilises raw-material availability for crushers, the effect on hulled kernel supply and prices is expected to be more limited, with bakery kernels holding sideways near 0.90–0.93 EUR/kg FCA.
Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 675 introduces mandatory producer-register verification for rapeseed exporters from 1 July 2026 and soybean exporters from 1 September 2026, replacing chamber-of-commerce certificates as the basis for export-duty exemptions. The change raises working-capital and administrative costs for traders and is already contributing to a modest convergence of Ukrainian rapeseed prices toward EU benchmarks.
South African SAFEX sunflower seed futures softened in late September 2026 as seasonal harvest pressure weighs on local prices, while Black Sea seed and crude oil values remain underpinned by ongoing Ukrainian port disruptions and a tightening global vegetable oil balance, according to CMB News.
Global sunflower seed output is projected to reach around 62.3 million tonnes in 2026/27, reinforcing an oilseed surplus, while Chinese confection and bakery-grade kernels command firm premiums. Black Sea logistics disruptions and export taxes continue to add volatility to trade flows, with China's role as an alternative supplier seen as a potential source of growing pricing power.