Ukraine's 2026 Sunflower Crop Nears 14 Million Tonnes, Easing Seed Supply but Leaving Kernel Market Range-Bound
Ukraine's sunflower harvest is forecast to recover to around 14 million tonnes in 2026, roughly 20% above last year, on improved yields in eastern and southern regions. While the larger crop stabilises raw-material availability for crushers, the effect on hulled kernel supply and prices is expected to be more limited, with bakery kernels holding sideways near 0.90–0.93 EUR/kg FCA.
Ukraine's sunflower crop is on course for a significant rebound in 2026, with production forecast to reach approximately 14 million tonnes — about 20% above the 2025 level — according to CMB News. The recovery strengthens the raw-material base for Ukraine's crushing and kernel processing industries, but analysts at the publication caution that the benefits will not flow equally to all market segments.
Sown area for the 2026 season is broadly unchanged at 6.109 million hectares, according to CMB News. The production uplift is instead driven by an improvement in forecast yields, which are expected to reach 2.29 tonnes per hectare, compared with only 1.92 t/ha recorded in 2025. The publication notes the additional volume amounts to roughly 2.3 million tonnes of extra seed relative to last year.
Weather played a decisive role in shaping the season's outcome. CMB News reports that a late, cold spring slowed crop establishment and created early moisture deficits, particularly in western oblasts including Volyn, Lviv and Rivne, where yields are expected to remain below average. However, rainfall from July onward significantly improved conditions in the eastern and southern regions that account for the bulk of Ukraine's sunflower area, more than offsetting the western shortfalls. The publication states the positive national outlook has been confirmed by recent assessments from the Joint Research Centre (JRC).
Almost all Ukrainian sunflower seed is processed domestically, meaning the larger crop translates primarily into higher oil and meal output rather than a proportional rise in seed exports, CMB News notes. For the hulled kernel market, the publication says the link between crop size and available supply is "even less direct," as effective output will depend on processing capacity, product quality, and relative economics versus crude oil production.
Kernel processors face a specific trade-off: if crushers prioritise crude oil production — incentivised by elevated oil prices — the share of seed directed to kernel processing may not rise in proportion to the crop. CMB News reports that Ukrainian crude sunflower oil CPT Odesa is currently quoted at 1.176 EUR/kg, up from early-September levels, reflecting improved crush margins and steady export demand. Sunflower seeds at 98% purity in Ukraine and Moldova/FCA Germany are quoted at 0.44–0.45 EUR/kg, while hulled bakery kernels from Ukrainian, Bulgarian and Moldovan origins are trading in a sideways range of 0.90–0.93 EUR/kg FCA.
On the risk outlook, CMB News identifies regional yield disparities and logistical and geopolitical uncertainties around export routes as the primary ongoing concerns, noting these "continue to influence basis levels and could intermittently tighten nearby availability for specific destinations."
Prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by the editorial team.
