Argentina's bumper 2025/26 corn harvest of roughly 71.7 million tonnes is driving record export volumes to North Africa, displacing Ukrainian and EU supplies constrained by Black Sea disruptions and drought. Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria have all sharply increased purchases from Argentina in the first seven months of 2026, while Brazil's expanding ethanol sector is further tightening global export availability.
CBOT soybean futures fell for the week ending 18 September 2026, weighed down by the onset of U.S. harvest and softness in vegetable oil markets, while firm soymeal prices, robust Chinese export demand, and harvest-delaying Midwest rains capped the downside. Regional FOB prices showed a mixed picture, with Ukrainian standard soybeans easing and GMO-free values edging higher.
Ukrainian soybean prices at Odesa are softening modestly as alternative Black Sea export routes inch toward greater capacity, now handling around 40% of normal agricultural volumes, while seasonal harvest pressure adds fresh supply into a still-constrained logistics system.
The USDA's September WASDE trimmed 2026/27 US corn ending stocks and slashed production forecasts, while soybean ending stocks edged lower on stronger export demand. Wheat balances were broadly stable. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's shutdown of its East-West pipeline and record-high diesel cracks are adding freight and energy cost pressure that feed manufacturers and ingredient traders will need to monitor closely.