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USDA cut its combined 2026/27 wheat export forecast for Russia and Ukraine by 2 million metric tons in its November 10 WASDE report, lowering Russia's projection by 1 million tons to 39 million and Ukraine's by the same amount to 11.5 million. The agency attributed shipments below historical averages to the Black Sea conflict, even as it raised projected global wheat supplies by 6.4 million tons to 1,110.4 million.
Lower Black Sea export availability tightens the trade picture for importers even though global supply rose, supporting wheat prices and forcing buyers to weigh delivery reliability and replacement costs.
folitic.comNov 14, 2026After 772 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
