
Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation president Leonid Kozachenko said grain exports are reaching 7 million tonnes per month with the Black Sea corridor fully functioning. Logistics costs have risen nearly 350% since hostilities began, and USDA expects Ukrainian wheat exports of 13 million tonnes in 2024/25.
A USDA forecast of only 13 million tonnes of Ukrainian wheat signals tighter exportable supply in coming months, which is supportive for wheat prices. Higher logistics costs also widen the export spread.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.