
Jorge Moreira da Silva, head of the UN Office for Project Services, told the COP31 climate talks in Antalya that Iran and the United States should immediately allow fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. He said about five vessels a day carrying fertiliser are needed and that a third of world fertiliser previously transited the strait, with prices up about 30% since the blockades began.
Losing roughly a third of seaborne fertiliser supply through Hormuz keeps nitrogen and phosphate prices elevated, raising input costs for farmers and feed grain production, especially in import-dependent countries.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.