COMEX gold fell below $3900 per ounce and ended the week down 4.60%, nearing a one-year low. The decline followed hotter-than-expected US inflation, hawkish Federal Reserve comments, and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, which lifted the dollar index above 103.
Higher real yields and a firmer dollar raise the cost of holding non-yielding metals and tend to weigh on dollar-priced commodities. Feed buyers should expect a stronger dollar to pressure commodity prices if Fed tightening expectations persist.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.