
Gulf oil supply rose despite continued attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia pumping 10.5 million barrels a day in October. Iraq and Kuwait also reported large increases, and the UAE is free of OPEC quotas.
Oil futures fell almost 25% for the month at one point this week.
Ample supply and weakening physical cargo prices reduce energy-driven cost pressure on feed producers, including diesel, fertilizer and freight, and ease pressure on biofuel-linked oils.
After 338 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -5.2% to +1.9%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.