
December WTI settled 0.18 lower, down 0.20%, and December RBOB gasoline fell 1.85% on Friday. The US dollar index hit a 1.5-year high, and the IEA cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 90,000 bpd while projecting a 2 million bpd surplus this quarter.
A stronger dollar and an expected oil surplus both weigh on dollar-denominated energy and feed-input costs, though continuing US-Iran supply risk limits the downside.
After 588 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +2.7%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.