The October 9 WASDE raised the national corn yield 2.7 bpa to 181.2, lifting production above 16 billion bushels and pushing December futures down about 20% from their September high. The November 10 WASDE cut yield to 179.6 bpa and reduced production by 141 million bushels, with December corn jumping about 10 cents on report day before fading.
Corn supply swung from a surprise surplus to a smaller crop, so the price path depends on whether the November cut holds through harvest and export demand. Lower corn supply tightens feed grain costs for buyers, while fund liquidation and weak export inspections continue to pressure prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.