Egyptian granular urea for November export contracts was about $535/t FOB, 17.1% above September's $457/t, as Egypt cut gas supply to some fertilizer plants by 20-33%. Ukrainian urea offers stood at 29,350-31,800 UAH/t as of November 1, with a single Cherkasy quote at 38,200 UAH/t on November 12.
Higher Egyptian gas-linked costs and tighter supply push up import-parity prices for urea, though Ukrainian domestic prices will also depend on the hryvnia exchange rate and local stock levels.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.