
According to the Korea Rural Economic Institute's Q3 2026 trade report, international urea prices spiked from $415.4/t in January to $856.9/t in April, then fell to $407.5/t by September, roughly back to the January level. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) moved the other way, rising from $619.2/t in January to $800.6/t in September, up 29.3%.
Urea has fully unwound its Middle East conflict premium, while DAP keeps climbing on Strait of Hormuz disruptions, so phosphate feed-ingredient and fertilizer costs for buyers remain firm even as nitrogen relief arrives.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.