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China normally exports about 5 to 5.5 million tonnes of urea a year, making it one of the largest global suppliers. Its exports were only about half a million tonnes in the first half of the year, then jumped sharply in a single month after the government approved a much larger export volume.
Shipments are now being halted as the northern hemisphere spring approaches, a point at which China has previously closed its export window.
Removing a major urea supplier tightens global nitrogen fertilizer supply just as spring demand builds, which supports urea prices and raises input costs for corn and other feed grains. Importers such as India, which fell well short in its last tender, face higher costs and less certain supply.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleNov 12, 2026After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
