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NOAA reports a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, with a probability above 79%. Sea surface temperatures in the key monitoring region were 2.5°C above average in October, and the agency sees a 60% chance of a historic event stronger than any since 1950.
El Niño cuts Peruvian anchovy catches, which tightens fishmeal supply, and threatens Asian rice and palm oil output, supporting prices for those commodities.
theinvestfeed.comJames HarlowNov 13, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
