The Philippines Department of Agriculture said national rice supply remains stable despite El Niño concerns following PAGASA's March El Niño Watch. Palay ending stocks for Q1 2023 are estimated at 5.66 million MT, enough for 51 days, and farmgate prices rose above the prior month's record.
Rising Philippine farmgate prices and El Niño risk point to firmer Asian rice prices, though ample stocks limit near-term import demand pressure.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.