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A GERAÇÃO IEA/USP researcher urges Brazilian farmers to plan planting for the extreme El Niño scenario before the phenomenon peaks. NOAA reported on November 12 that the Niño-3.4 index reached 2.5°C above average, with over 79% odds the event stays strong or very strong through January–March 2027.
Conab's October estimate for the 2026/27 harvest is 367.1 million tonnes of grain, including up to 181.6 million tonnes of soybeans and 148 million tonnes of corn.
A strong El Niño raises the risk of drought or irregular rain in Brazil's summer crops, which could tighten soybean and corn supplies and support meal and feed grain prices. Early planning by farmers reduces the chance of a sudden supply shock.
globorural.globo.comPulse BrandNov 13, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
