Wheat Climbs the Most Since 2024 as Grains Follow Surging Crude

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews-1.2%
• Sep 3, 2026Why wheat prices are surging+0.7%
• Jul 14, 2026Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide | Saxo+4.5%
• Apr 4, 2022Grains gain as peace hopes fade in Ukraine – The Seam-7.3%
• Feb 14, 2025Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb+1.6%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jul 14, 2026Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide | Saxo+10.5%
• Apr 4, 2022Grains gain as peace hopes fade in Ukraine – The Seam+9.3%
• Feb 14, 2025Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb+1.8%
• Jul 20, 2026Wheat Climbs on Black Sea Risk, Soybeans Firm as China Returns+1.8%
• Jul 17, 2026Wheat prices surge as export disruption rattles markets — Hectare Trading | The online marketplace for crops+6.0%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2022Oil surges above $100 for the first time since 2014, before paring gains+20.2%
• Oct 1, 2018US crude surges above $75 to the highest level since November 2014+1.5%
• Mar 9, 2026Grains Retreat Following Energies, See Farmer Selling: Cattle Plunge - AgWeb+8.5%
• Sep 24, 2018Crude on the upswing as output increases fade in the distance — Octa+3.4%
• Oct 1, 2024U.S. grains: Wheat rallies on drought, geopolitical tensions; corn follows | Farmtario+13.1%