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NOAA cut its chance that this El Niño becomes the strongest since 1950 to about 60%, down from 83% a month earlier, in its 12 November update. Niño 3.4 eased to +3.3 °C while Niño 1+2 reached a record +5.6 °C, and CPC still expects strengthening before weakening in early 2027.
A strong El Niño typically cuts output in Asia, Australia and parts of South America, supporting prices for rice, sugar, palm oil and feed grains. The lower odds slightly reduce the chance of an extreme event, but the outlook remains supportive for weather-sensitive crops.
elninolive.comIaroslav VladymyrNov 13, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
