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La Niña is weakening and expected to dissipate this spring, with some computer models suggesting a quick transition to El Niño over the coming months. Lighter-than-usual rainfall is likely in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, mainland Southeast Asia and parts of India this summer.
Dryness in Southeast Asian palm oil and rice areas and India could tighten supplies later this year, supporting palm oil and rice prices if El Niño verifies.
world-grain.comDrew LernerMar 9, 2023After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
