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NOAA said on Thursday a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027, with better than 79% odds. Ivory Coast warned of a 21–25% hit to its 2026–27 cocoa harvest, and US rough rice futures are about 50% higher since El Niño was declared on 11 June.
Expected weather damage to West African cocoa and Asian and South American crops supports prices of cocoa, sugar and rice. Traders are pricing supply risk, though a faster-than-expected recovery in key growing regions could reverse these gains.
invezz.comInvezz TeamNov 13, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
