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Analysts say the direction of global wheat prices depends largely on whether exports through the Black Sea resume, with a restart seen as bearish and continued restrictions nearing a price floor. On November 13, CBOT wheat rose 1.9% to $5.95 per bushel after touching $5.82, its lowest since June 30, while corn and soybeans also gained.
Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange raised its 2026/27 wheat forecast to 24.3 million tonnes.
Blocked Black Sea shipments keep Russian and Ukrainian wheat off the market, which supports prices. Any reopening would add supply and pressure prices, while new Argentine crop supply also caps rallies.
ukragroconsult.comNov 13, 2026After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
