
Soybean planting reached 66% of projected area in Brazil in the first week of November. Conab's second 2026-27 survey forecasts soybean output of 181.6 million tonnes on 49.3 million hectares, with Mato Grosso planting at 95.6%.
Conab cautions that irregular rainfall, high temperatures and El Niño effects leave the crop's potential uncertain.
A stable Brazilian soybean forecast keeps export supply comfortable, which limits upside in soybean and meal prices. Weather stress from El Niño is the main risk that could tighten supply later in the season.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.