
USDA cut its national corn yield forecast to 179.6 bushels per acre on November 10, down 1.6 bushels from October. Production is projected at 15.9 billion bushels, down 1% from the prior forecast and 6% from 2025, and could still be the second-largest crop on record.
The next NASS yield estimate is scheduled for January 12, 2027.
A lower yield forecast tightens the corn balance sheet, but the crop remains large, so the price effect is moderate. Historical revisions give no clear signal of a further January cut, leaving the market direction uncertain.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.