WTI rose 0.90% to $89.54 and Brent rose 1.22% to $96.99 on Friday after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure on Thursday. The IEA reported the first global supply surplus since the Iran war began, while US crude stocks rose 4.7 million barrels, above the forecast draw.
Attacks on Saudi energy sites support crude prices, which feed into diesel, fertilizer and freight costs for feed buyers. The IEA surplus and bearish US inventory data cap the rally.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.