Oil falls as Trump downplays prospect of escalation with Iran

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices tumble as Iran signals de-escalation with limited missile attack | AP News-12.2%
• May 21, 2026Oil falls with US-Iran peace talks in focus-9.1%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil prices dive as Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon’ | CNN Business-1.3%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+10.2%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil dives, settles down 11% after Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation | Reuters-1.3%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices tumble as Iran signals de-escalation with limited missile attack | AP News-11.9%
• May 21, 2026Oil falls with US-Iran peace talks in focus-11.6%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil prices dive as Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon’ | CNN Business+4.1%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+15.0%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil dives, settles down 11% after Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation | Reuters+4.1%