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Statistics Sweden estimates the 2026 total grain harvest at 5.8 million tonnes, 11% below last year's record but 8% above the five-year average. Winter kill from a harsh winter cut winter wheat output by about 0.6 million tonnes, while spring crops did well and the preliminary oat yield of 5.0 tonnes per hectare is the highest on record.
Sweden is a small grain exporter, so the impact on world prices is limited. The lower winter wheat crop is mildly supportive for wheat, while record oat yields add supply that weighs on oat prices.
indexbox.ioNov 13, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 96 past weather events, Oats moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.5% to +4.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
