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Western Canada is expected to produce good yields this year after the drought of 2021, while Ontario faces concerns from above-average August temperatures affecting winter wheat. Organic oat prices are easing, though premiums remain near double conventional levels and stocks are tight.
Improved Western Canadian oat supply reduces import needs from the U.S. and Europe, which is mildly bearish for oat prices at harvest.
After 96 past weather events, Oats moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.5% to +4.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.