
ABC reports ABARES forecasts NSW winter crop production tripling to 12 million tonnes on a sown area near 5.9 million hectares, after heavy rain ended three years of drought. Farmers still face risks from a wet finish or frost.
A much larger NSW crop adds substantial feed grain and wheat supply to the domestic and export market, which is bearish for local and export grain prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 96 past weather events, Oats moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.5% to +4.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.