
Good autumn and early winter rainfall is expected to lift Australian grain production by about 50% this season. ABARES puts winter crop output at 44.5Mt, 5% above its 10-year average, with winter crop plantings up more than 20%.
A strong Australian winter crop adds exportable supply of wheat and barley, which typically weighs on international feed grain prices as the harvest approaches.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.