◂ Event Timeline

Jul 5, 2024WEATHERFrance

French soft wheat yield seen 11% below 10-year average - Markets

Arvalis and Intercereales forecast French soft wheat yield at 6.4 t/ha, 13% below last year and 11% below the 10-year average, due to a wet season. Protein content is expected to be stable at 11.6%.

WHY IT MATTERS

A yield well below trend implies a much smaller French crop than in recent years, supporting European wheat values.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▲

SOURCE
brecorder.comReutersJul 5, 2024

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.5%5d +9.4%20d +1.3%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

Jun 5, 2020French soft wheat crop rating stable at nine-year low - Markets - Business Recorder-0.7%
Jul 13, 2024French soft wheat harvest slow and crop rating slips - Markets - Business Recorder-3.2%
Aug 28, 2021French soft wheat harvest not completed - Markets - Business Recorder+0.2%
Aug 20, 2021French soft wheat harvest nears end after hot spell - Markets - Business Recorder+1.0%
Sep 4, 2021Late-running French soft wheat harvest almost complete - Markets - Business Recorder+0.4%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Linked price moves

Wheat (SRW)+9.4%1 period to Jul 8, 20243.2σ
French soft wheat yield forecast 11% below the 10-year average on a wet season tightens EU export supply, which is supportive for wheat prices.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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