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Colombia's coffee output is running about 10% behind the prior year after heavy rain disrupted the harvest. Colombia's more concentrated flowering could help ease tight high-quality arabica supply if fruit development avoids El Niño dryness.
Heat in Brazil's Rondônia state and Vietnam's history of long dry spells keep robusta weather risk in focus.
Dry El Niño conditions during flowering could tighten arabica and robusta supply and support coffee prices. Brazil's arabica crop is currently in very good condition, which partly offsets the risk.
stonex.comEditorial TeamNov 13, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
