Oil Prices Fall 32% From Peak As Supply Recovers Despite Iran War

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Jul 20, 2026Why oil prices haven't gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war | Reuters+13.9%
• Nov 18, 2022Oil slides 2%, posts second weekly decline as supply fears recede | Reuters-5.4%
• Jul 21, 2017Oil prices sink on a report OPEC supply will rise in July+4.4%
• Jul 1, 2022Oil prices fall due to recession worries-7.1%
• Jun 23, 2022Oil prices slump as investors fear Fed rate hikes will hurt demand | Reuters+4.3%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 20, 2026Why oil prices haven't gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war | Reuters+9.4%
• Dec 15, 2021Canadian dollar at nearly 3-month low as oil prices fall | Reuters+0.7%
• Nov 18, 2022Oil slides 2%, posts second weekly decline as supply fears recede | Reuters-6.5%
• Jul 21, 2017Oil prices sink on a report OPEC supply will rise in July+4.9%
• Jul 1, 2022Oil prices fall due to recession worries-0.9%

After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.

• Aug 30, 2017Strong euro supports biodiesel prices despite falling veg oils : The Daily Digest+2.7%
• Apr 7, 2025Palm and Soy Oil Prices Drop as Oil Prices Decline+2.0%
• May 19, 2021Oil prices dive $2 on fears of Asian pandemic, possible U.S. rate hikes | Reuters-1.2%
• Jul 1, 2022Palm oil falls 4% on recession fears, higher supply outlook - Markets - Business Recorder-7.8%
• Aug 19, 2021Falling oil prices increase pressure on oilseed markets-4.3%