WTI Stages Sharp Comeback as Middle East Supply Risks Intensify

After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2026WTI Oil rises as geopolitical risks keep supply concerns alive-7.4%
• Apr 23, 2024The Commodities Feed: Middle East tensions ease | articles | ING THINK+0.3%
• Jun 12, 2025Market Talk | Biggest Rally of the Year Stalled Amid Middle East Tensions+10.2%
• Jul 13, 2018Oil rises but declines for the week as supply concerns ease-1.2%
• Jul 13, 2018Oil falls for second week as supply concerns ease-1.2%

After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 12, 2025Market Talk | Biggest Rally of the Year Stalled Amid Middle East Tensions+15.5%
• Jun 25, 2025Market Talk | Energy Markets Stabilize as Ceasefire Holds and Risk Premiums Fade+1.5%
• Mar 24, 2026Big drop in diesel futures Monday, but benchmark price rises again - FreightWaves+7.5%
• Mar 16, 2022Oil dips on Russia-Ukraine talks, U.S. inventory data+28.4%
• Jun 28, 2026Oil settles up on US-Iran strikes; cautious hopes for shipping cap gains | Financial News+2.8%