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Escalating drone and missile attacks on Black Sea shipping are raising war-risk freight and insurance costs for grain. More than 300 attacks and over 30 seafarers killed have been reported this year, with incidents now reaching Romanian and Bulgarian waters and traffic thinning in the northern and central Black Sea.
Higher war-risk premiums widen the gap between FOB quotes and delivered costs for importers in North Africa and the Middle East. Large Russian and Ukrainian crops currently cap prices, but continued incidents could lift landed wheat prices.
commodity-board.comNov 13, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
