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NOAA gives the developing El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the 2026/27 Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter, with a 69% probability of exceeding any event recorded since 1950 between October and December. Southern Africa faces heightened drought and extreme heat risk, while parts of East Africa could see above-normal rainfall and flooding.
A strong El Niño raises the risk of drought-hit maize and other crop losses in southern Africa, which could lift regional feed grain import demand and prices. Effects elsewhere, including the South American and Asian crops, add to the weather premium across grains and oilseeds.
agrimonitor.com.naNov 12, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
