Chicago grain and soy futures closed lower on Thursday, reversing the rebound after the USDA monthly report on Tuesday. The dollar strengthened to its highest level since April 2025, and December SRW wheat fell 15.25 cents to $5.84 per bushel, December corn fell 5.5 cents to $4.42, and January soybeans fell 11.75 cents to $12.19.
A stronger dollar makes US grain less competitive in export markets and pressures futures, while the recent crude oil drop also weighs on corn and soybeans. Feed buyers should expect softer prices unless export demand or the Fed outlook shifts.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.