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December WTI closed up 2.55% on Thursday after Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran. Saudi crude output rose 26% in October and Iraq hit a wartime high, while Houthi missiles targeted western Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz remained contested.
Reduced peace prospects keep the Middle East supply risk premium in crude, which lifts diesel and freight costs for feed buyers, though rising Gulf output limits the upside.
barchart.comRich AsplundNov 12, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
