EUR/USD dropped back below 1.2100 on Friday, reversing a rally to seven-week highs near 1.2240. Month-end U.S. dollar buying was the main driver, and risk-sensitive AUD, NZD and CAD fell 1.9%, 1.6% and 0.9% against the dollar.
Month-end dollar demand and dovish ECB signals strengthen the dollar and weigh on commodity-linked currencies. This can make dollar-priced feed imports relatively more expensive for some buyers.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Directly describes EUR/USD reversing from seven-week highs and dropping below 1.2100 on Feb 26, driven by month-end dollar buying and risk-off selling of risk currencies.
Month-end dollar buying and sharp falls in AUD, NZD and CAD drove broad dollar gains on Feb 26.