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MUFG economists expect the euro to weaken against the dollar after a dovish shift in ECB rhetoric and a hawkish shift in Fed rhetoric. They cite Fabio Panetta's comments that the ECB would not slow asset purchases without sustained inflation, and rising use of the Fed's reverse repo facility.
A weaker euro against the dollar makes U.S. commodities relatively cheaper for euro-based buyers and strengthens the dollar, which tends to weigh on dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices. The effect is an outlook from analysts rather than a confirmed policy change.
forexcrunch.comFX StreetMay 27, 2021After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
