ING analysts said investors would watch Eurozone indicators, especially the flash August CPI, to gauge the ECB's stance at its mid-September meeting. They flagged political risks from Turkey and Italy, including a Fitch review of Italian sovereign debt, which they said would likely cap euro rallies.
Political risk capping the euro supports a firmer dollar, which weighs on dollar-priced feed commodities and raises costs for euro-zone importers. The impact on commodity prices is limited.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.