Big moves ahead: ECB’s interest rate cut and the future of EUR/USD

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2025EUR/USD weakens as Fed sees no rush for interest rate cuts-0.9%
• Oct 31, 2025EUR/USD Faces Pressure as ECB Dovish Tilt Raises Odds of a 2026 Rate Cut | Investing.com-0.2%
• Nov 2, 2017Pound sterling (GBP) plunges against the dollar (USD) and euro (EUR) as Bank hikes interest rates-0.2%
• Jan 29, 2024US dollar forecast: USD at the mercy of the Fed, BoE and NFP ahead | IG SG-0.7%
• May 28, 2023The Dollar Is Still King in Europe, and It’s Swaying Interest Rates - WSJ+0.1%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2025EUR/USD weakens as Fed sees no rush for interest rate cuts+0.3%
• Oct 31, 2025EUR/USD Faces Pressure as ECB Dovish Tilt Raises Odds of a 2026 Rate Cut | Investing.com+0.3%
• Feb 27, 2023Oil futures slip 1% on worries about more U.S. interest rate hikes | Reuters-0.7%
• Apr 30, 2019Market alert: Will the Fed cut interest rates? | XTB-0.1%
• Nov 2, 2017Pound sterling (GBP) plunges against the dollar (USD) and euro (EUR) as Bank hikes interest rates-0.1%