Argentine agricultural markets were quiet during holidays and the Pope's visit, but Chicago soybean and corn prices jumped over 3% and 2.5% after the USDA report predicted smaller-than-expected volumes. Local Argentine prices are expected to recover toward recent levels.
A tighter US stocks-to-use outlook lifts global soybean and corn benchmarks, which feeds into Argentine export and local prices and therefore feed input costs for buyers.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.