
USDA's April WASDE left U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.44 billion bushels, even though it cut Ukraine's corn export estimate by 4.5 million tonnes. Brazil's soybean production was lowered to 125 million tonnes from 127 million, and China's soybean import forecast was cut to 91 million tonnes, down 9% from last year.
Lower Ukrainian corn exports tighten global corn export supply, while the cut to China's soybean import forecast reduces expected demand for U.S. soybeans.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.