
The USDA's August report cut Russia's 2026/27 wheat export forecast to 46 million tonnes and Ukraine's to 13.5 million, citing Black Sea shipping disruption. Export quotes rose for every major exporter except Russia, where prices fell to $224 a tonne.
EU wheat quotes jumped $25 to $262 a tonne, and the EU corn crop is heading for its smallest in nearly 20 years.
A USDA cut to major exporter supplies combined with EU crop losses lifts world wheat and corn prices, while Russia's discount reflects logistics rather than surplus.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.